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Diesel price declines forecast to continue into 2023

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Updated Dec 19, 2022

In something akin to a gesture of holiday good will, diesel prices at the pump have continued to drop and analysts expect 2023 to bring more of the same.

According to AAA, the average price per gallon for diesel on Friday in the U.S. was $4.80, down nearly 20 cents from a week prior and down 55 cents from last month’s average.

A drop in Brent crude oil prices, decreases in wholesale and retail margins along with increased refinery output continues to chip away at historically high prices.

Tom Kloza, head of energy analysis at Oil Price Information Service, expects the downward trend to continue, particularly in the spring following a rough year of high prices.

“Diesel prices have some upcoming anniversaries that are quite staggering,” Kloza said. “In 2022, January was ushered in with street prices around $3.63 per gallon and February saw a $3.89/gal average. Post Ukraine invasion we saw sequential prices (March through December) of $5.08/gal; $5.52/gal; $5.74/gal; $5.55/gal; $5.08/gal; $4.98/gal; $5.17/gal; $5.31/gal and $4.99/gal (December so far).

2023 diesel outlookA chart released recently by the U.S. Energy Information Administration forecasts a decline in diesel prices for 2023.U.S. Energy Information Administration