Market Report: Heavy-Duty Truck Prices

Market Report: Heavy-Duty Truck Prices

Average Prices

Pricing changes on the heavy-duty trucks did not differ much from the medium duty with Q2 2022 as the highest average listing prices seen in two years.  Prices have been on a consistent incline for the past year but have already begun to slow down heading into Q3 2022. Not only have the heavy trucks on the resale channel increased in price, but age as well.  Luckily there has been some reprieve in the continuous age increases seen from Q1 2021 through Q1 2022 as the average age dropped down to 9.2 from 10.2 in Q2 2022. This indicates those higher priced trucks available over the quarter were slightly newer, but as we will see, did not necessarily have fewer miles on them.

Average Age vs. Average Mileage

The quarterly changes in mileage observed on heavy duty trucks was minimal in comparison to the percentage changes on average age.  There were a few points in time over the past two years where age changed at a faster rate than mileage, Q1 2021 for example.  During this period, the average age of trucks increased almost 20% while mileage remained relatively flat. As a new year turns over and new model year trucks are introduced, the average age on the market is up before typically leveling out with a newer influx of trucks.  

2021 was a bit different in that quarter-over-quarter increases remained consistent until Q2 2022.  Trucks available were steadily increasing in age while average mileage dipped in Q3 2021 but otherwise showed minimal change until Q1 2022.  Q2 2022 was the first time since 2020 where average age dropped more than 10% between quarters while average mileage was up.  All the trucks with higher utilization are remaining on the market, but hopefully as inventory starts to gradually increase in the coming quarters, large swings will not be as common. 

While quarter-over-quarter change, especially during 2021, seem to indicate relatively steady average mileage, there was quite a dip in average annual usage in 2021 when compared to mid-2020 averages.  This was likely a delayed showing of 2020 low mileage as those trucks driven less during 2020 were starting to hit the market.  Peak annualized mileage over the past two years hit during Q3 2020 and remained on a downward trend until early 2022.

In Focus: 9-year-old Heavy Duty Trucks

Driving in on the 9-year-old heavy trucks as they will be one of the most common you will have seen on the used market during Q2 2022, the average listing prices were at an all-time high for the two-year period.  With average prices going from $39.1K Q2 2020 up to $64.8K in Q2 2022, there are multiple factors to review when making the decision to purchase one of these trucks, one of which is mileage.

Historically, the lower mileage trucks would be priced higher and the prospect of having more highway life left in the truck could be enticing.  Unfortunately, the average mileage is also up on the 9-year-old heavy duty trucks almost as high as the peak in Q3 2020. The second half of 2021 into the start of 2022 showed promise with average mileage down from 2020 numbers giving a bit more incentive to purchase the increasing priced trucks. 

This is Part 4 of a five-part series on managing fuel costs as part of the Price Digests Market Report on shifting truck values. (Read Part 1Part 2Part 3Part 4Part 5 or download the entire guide.)