Average Prices
Day Cabs
The story for class 8 Day Cabs is similar to that of the heavy-duty trucks, with the highest prices seen over the past two years despite age increases. There were consecutive increases in age between Q1 2021 and Q1 2022 with a light reprieve in Q2 2022 down to 9.9 years which is significantly newer than the class 8 cab and chassis trucks.
Cab & Chassis
Cab and Chassis trucks, unlike the other heavy duty truck prices observed, have declined since both Q2 2020 and Q2 2021. Given the many different upfits available on these trucks, as the trucking and construction needs change, so does the demand for specific vocational trucks. The average price drop is heavily driven by the increase in older assets available on the resale channel. Average age at Q2 2020 was 10.3 and 11.5 at Q2 2021. The average age during 2022 was 14 years or a 2008 model year.
Sleepers
While the Sleeper Tractor prices consistently increased between Q2 2020 through Q2 2022, the average age on the market fluctuated quite a bit. The average age increased from Q2 2021 until a drop occurred in Q2 2022 going from 5.7 to 6.7 before dropping down to 5.8 indicating the popular model years available are 2016 and 2017. The increase in prices makes sense with the average age on market drop especially now that more inventory is hitting the used truck market overall.
Average Age vs. Average Mileage
There were a few notable spikes in average age across the three different truck types over the past two years. The first spike being the Sleeper Tractors in Q1 2021, up 28.5% from the previous quarter which went from 4.6 to 6.0 years, or a 2014 to 2015 model year popularity increase. The second jump was not only the 16.8% increase in Day Cab Tractors in Q2 2021 but their incline starting in Q4 2020 and remaining on an upward trend until Q2 2022 which was previously noted. The third large increase was the Cab and Chassis increases of 16.0% and 11.3% in Q1 2021 and Q2 2021.
As would be expected, the average mileage observed on these truck types also increased as age increased with only a few quarters it did not. In Q3 2021 the Day Cab Tractor age was up 4.5% with an average mileage decline at 1.5% which was opposite of the 5.1% age decrease in Q2 2020 with a 1.5% increase in observed mileage. As the trucks available are much older in some cases, the Cab and Chassis over two years for example, and mileage only slightly increasing, there were slight declines in average miles per year that owners and operators were putting on these trucks. There were clear dips across all three truck types in 2021, assumed to be a result of less driving in 2020. By Q2 2022, the Day Cab Tractors and Sleeper Tractors leveled out and were back to what was detected in early 2020. The Cab and Chassis trucks however did not increase back up at the same rate. Q2 2022 compared to Q1 2020 was 14.3% below the average miles per year calculated on available trucks at the time of observation.
In Focus: Specific Truck Examples
Looking a bit deeper at the different class 8 truck types, the average age of a Day Cab Tractor versus the average 14-year-old Cab and Chassis and 5-year-old Sleeper Tractor the much older Cab & Chassis stand out clearly given the high prices witnessed over the past year along with declining miles per year. Calculating price per mile on the Cab and Chassis indicates significantly higher cost for travel being done by these trucks.
It is interesting to look at the 9-year-old Day Cab Tractor to the 5-year-old Sleeper Tractor and note how comparable the price per mile is on these trucks. While the average mileage per year in Q1 2021 was 42.8% higher on Sleeper Tractors than Day Cab, the price per mile was the same. This was a result of average prices on Day Cab Tractors increasing at a faster rate during 2020 than the Sleeper Tractors which were a bit more delayed with their significant increases coming in 2021 into 2022.
In Focus: 9-year-old Day Cabs
With average ages for class 8 Day Cab Tractor listings consistently between 7 and 10 years throughout 2020 to 2022, we have highlighted 9-year-old trucks of this type below to zoom in on the trends more specifically. These are the same trucks from the Price Digests Hype vs. Fundamentals paper last year as we reported on the age 8 trucks at the time. As expected, the average list price was on a steady incline while average mileage fluctuated quarter to quarter. Q2 2022 average price was 46.5% above the 2020 and 2021 average price and the average mileage was 16% above the 2020 and 2021 average making the price per mile for a 9 year old Day Cab Tractor increase 36.2%.
In Focus: 14-year-old Cab & Chassis
The average age increased by 3 years since Q2 2021, but since they will be the most common model year trucks on the used market for Cab & Chassis it is worth reviewing how their prices and mileage shifted. The drop in average mileage during Q1 2022 was an interesting highlight as average prices continued to rise.
In Focus: 5-year-old Sleeper
Average price on the Sleeper Tractors took off in 2021 more than doubling from where they were in early 2020. With those large increases, the mileage noted on the trucks was only 15.6% higher than where it started in Q1 2020. The largest increase was in Q1 2022 where prices jumped 38.2% on average. It is refreshing to see the first decline in Sleeper Tractor prices during Q2 2022 since the start of 2020. As the auction channel has been indicating, these declines are anticipated to continue onto the resale channel as inventory increases are occurring.
This is Part 5 of a five-part series on managing fuel costs as part of the Price Digests Market Report on shifting truck values. (Read Part 1, Part 2, Part 3, Part 4, Part 5 or download the entire guide.)